United States Commercial Banking Report Q4 2012 - New Market Report

New Financial Services research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 28 October 2012

BMI View: Loan growth is picking up in the United States, in line with our view that the commercial banking sector will continue to heal slowly. We are forecasting an improvement in lending growth to 6.0% in 2012, up from 2.5% in 2011.

The US banking sector received a positive bill of health from the US Federal Reserve's stress tests conducted in March, which showed that 15 of the largest 19 banking institutions had sufficient Tier 1 capital to weather another major crisis (Citi, SunTrust, Ally Financial and MetLife failed). While imperfect, the Fed's stress tests were, in our view, much more stringent than those conducted in Europe by the European Banking Authority, and provided a reasonable test of a negative economic scenario's effects on bank balance sheets.

While there remain significant headwinds to the US banking sector in the quarters ahead, the overall outlook is improving, in line with our view that the industry would emerge slowly but steadily out of the financial crisis, alongside the slow and erratic recovery in the economy as a whole. The release of the Federal Reserve's flow of funds report, also in March, offers a snapshot of the state of credit markets, and has helped reinforce our view that the US economy and banking system are slowly healing and are in position to underpin a sustained growth recovery.

Here are a few points of note from the report, followed by a brief look at the divergence in fortunes between US and eurozone credit markets. ???? The overall level of credit market debt outstanding relative to GDP has fallen to 338.7% from 373.2% at the peak in Q109. That is the lowest debt ratio since Q307, and dropped by 7.5% of GDP over the course of 2011. By comparison, nominal GDP grew by 3.9% in 2011, meaning that the drop in the ratio was due almost equally to both nominal growth and deleveraging.

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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

- Table: Levels (USDbn) - Table: Levels (US$bn) - Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) - Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011- Table: Projected Levels (USDbn), 2008-2016

SWOT Analysis

- United States Commercial Banking SWOT - United States Political SWOT - United States Economic SWOT- United States Business Environment SWOT

Business Environment Outlook

- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating - Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings - Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology- Table: Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

Global Commercial Banking Outlook

Regional Banking Sector Outlook

- Developed States Banking Sector Forecast Overview - Q4 2012 - Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 - Table: Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings - Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios - Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 - Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) - Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011)- Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields

United States Banking Sector Outlook

- Recovery Is Solidifying- Price-to-Book Discounts At 2009 Equity Trough And In July 2012

Economic Outlook

- Table: United States - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2008-2016

Competitive Landscape

- Market Structure - Protagonists - Table: Protagonists In The US Commercial Banking Sector - Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe - List Of Banks- Table: Top 50 Bank Holding Companies In Terms Of Total Domestic Deposits

Company Profiles

- Bank of America - Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-2012 -

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