Just Released: "United Kingdom Commercial Banking Report Q4 2012"

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "United Kingdom Commercial Banking Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 29 October 2012

BMI View: UK banks have yet to restore lending to the economy, with the weak demand outlook at home and continued concerns over the future of the eurozone contributing to heightened risk aversion. We expect industry growth to pick up slightly this year, though warn that risks are tilted to the downside. The UK banking sector continues to struggle against a myriad of headwinds both at home and abroad, which will underpin anaemic growth in industry assets and similarly prevent a full resumption of lending to the economy.

Across the Channel, the sovereign debt crisis refuses to die down with the successful defusing of the Greek debt bomb merely giving way to a renewed focus on the Spanish economy and the sustainability of the national debt. UK banks have both direct exposure (albeit generally less than the likes of France and Germany) to euro area government debt, as well as indirectly via derivative assets. The periodic resurgence in existential crisis risks within the currency union is hitting both investor confidence and risk appetite within the banking sector. Back home, UK banks remain wary of ramping up lending given the weak and fragile demand outlook. The household sector is stuck in a prolonged and painful period of deleveraging, with rising unemployment and fears over job security for those employed further impeding demand for new credit. The latest data certainly bear this out.

Just over 33,100 loans were approved for house purchases in February, which despite being an improvement from the low of 17,289 in November 2008 is still a far cry from the 78,458 reading from November 2006 (see chart below). Meanwhile, although credit card balances have recovered somewhat, we warn that this may in part reflect heightened financial distress (such as covering mortgage payments and utilities) rather than a robust recovery in consumer credit demand.

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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

- Table: Levels (GBPbn) - Table: Levels (US$bn) - Table: Levels At February 2012 - Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) - Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 - Table: Projected Levels (GBPbn), 2008-2016- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn), 2008-2016

SWOT Analysis

- United Kingdom Commercial Banking SWOT - United Kingdom Political SWOT - United Kingdom Economic SWOT- United Kingdom Business Environment SWOT

Business Environment Outlook

- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating - Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings - Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology- Table: Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

Global Commercial Banking Outlook

Regional Banking Sector Outlook

- Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 - Table: Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings - Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios - Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 - Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) - Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011)- Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields

United Kingdom Banking Sector Outlook

- Banking Sector: Another Scandal Dents The City

Economic Outlook

- Table: United Kingdom - Economic Activity, 2011-2016

Competitive Landscape

- Market Structure - Table: Protagonists In The UK's Commercial Banking Sector - Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe - List Of Banks - Table: Major British Banking Groups - Table: Other BBA Members- Credit Suisse International

Company Profiles

- Barclays - Table: Stock Market Indicators2006-2012 - Table: Balance Sheet (GBPmn), 2006-2011

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