Brazil Shipping Report Q2 2013 - New Study Released

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Brazil Shipping Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 19 March 2013

BMI's outlook for Brazilian ports remains broadly positive. However, it should be noted that there are downside risks to our Brazilian container terminal throughput forecasts in the coming years as what could be a painful economic rebalancing takes place in the Latin American giant. We forecast GDP growth of 3.7% for 2013, following estimated 1.8% growth in 2012, as the Brazilian real's breakthrough multi-year trendline support on the monthly chart in May indicates that the country's structural economic imbalances, namely a very strong consumer and a weak manufacturing sector, are beginning to unwind sooner than we initially anticipated.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/552267_brazil_shipping_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=201) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/552267_brazil_shipping_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=201)

A further downside is that BMI has long observed that Brazilian ports are in desperate need of significant investment as many of the country's facilities suffer from frequent congestion issues as their development has not kept pace with demand in recent years. In terms of port infrastructure, Brazil lags behind its peers, and the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Index ranks the country's ports 130th out of 142 countries globally. This ranking places the country in sixth position out of its seven regional peers, just above Venezuela.

Key Industry Data

- Total tonnage throughput at the Port of Santos to grow 8% in 2013 to reach 109mn tonnes. To 2017, we predict average annual growth of 10%.
- Container throughput at Santos to grow 6% to reach 3.3mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2013, with average annual growth of 6% during our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

Investment Plan For Ports

Considerable investment is needed in Brazil's freight transport network if it is to effectively serve the country's economic growth, especially in the neglected ports sector. This appears to have been kick-started by a series of measures announced by President Dilma Rousseff this week. We note that an emphasis on developing the ability to handle large volumes of cargo bodes well for future performance at the ports, especially important given the upcoming major sporting events to be held in the Latin American country.

Upside Risk To Paranagua Forecast

Upside risk is presented to BMI's box throughput growth forecast for the Brazilian port of Paranagua by recent developments at the facility's Terminal de Conteineres de Paranagua (TCP). However, even with this upside potential, we believe the port will struggle to regain the container throughput levels it enjoyed prior to its considerable decline in 2012.

Risks To Outlook

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