Recent Study: Egypt Power Report Q3 2012

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Egypt Power Report Q3 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 22 October 2012

BMI View: In spite of substantial renewables potential, particularly in the solar and wind sectors, Egypt looks set to remain over-dependent on gas- and oil-fired generation until it can proceed with plans for a nuclear reactor. Greater domestic and regional political stability makes the nuclear option more realistic, although a new administration needs to bed in thoroughly before funding can be put in place. In the meantime, we can expect to see steady but unspectacular progress in developing renewables-based electricity supply.

Government policy in relation to the energy sector seems certain to change in the wake of the political upheaval that swept the country in 2011/12. This means that plans for nuclear and renewables schemes may be modified or even abandoned in the near future. Given the need to reduce dependence on gas, it is hoped that Egypt will place greater emphasis on its considerable solar and wind potential, and a location has been selected for the first nuclear reactor site. However, political support remains uncertain.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/456329_egypt_power_report_q3_2012.aspx) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/456329_egypt_power_report_q3_2012.aspx)

Key trends and recent developments in the Egyptian electricity market include:

- During the period 2012-2021, Egypt's power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 4.54%, reaching 222.2 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 5.37% gain in gas-fired generation and a 2.37% rise in hydropower generation, accompanied by annual increases of almost 9.7% for renewables-based electricity supply.
- Egypt had earlier set a target of producing 12% of its power from wind and a total of 20% from renewables by 2020, although the change of administration leaves this strategy subject to review. The previous administration was also looking to attract US$110bn of investment into its power sector by 2027. The country had hoped to boost the portion of energy coming from renewable sources dramatically, drawing 20% of the projected 60 gigawatts (GW) of demand in 2020 from renewables. The government hopes that wind will provide around 7.2GW of that total.
- Following an assumed 2.0% increase in real GDP in 2012, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 5.8% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from 84.0mn to 96.1mn during the period 2012-2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from an estimated 128.2TWh in 2012 to 205.4TWh by 2021. During the period 2012-2021, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 4.50%.
- Thanks partly to the projected rise in net generation, which broadly matches the underlying demand trend, Egypt's power supply surplus is likely to grow over the medium term. A modest decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses from an estimated 11.0% in 2012 will help support the market.

Fast Market Research (http://www.fastmr.com) is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.