Recent Study: Algeria Agribusiness Report Q4 2012

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Algeria Agribusiness Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 23 October 2012

BMI View: With wheat and dairy production systematically short of consumption, Algeria is a major importer of food products. The 2012/13 season will be no exception to this trend, although wheat output is expected to jump, helped by favourable weather.

Although imports are likely to mainly come from traditional suppliers such as European countries this season, Algeria is increasingly expanding trading links with countries such as Brazil and India, especially for dairy and beef products. Food price inflation eased in the second quarter, and the country's food security is likely to remain fairly stable in the coming months as supplies grow with the grains' harvest.

Key Views

- Wheat consumption growth to 2015/16: 15.3% to 10.1mn tonnes. Demand for wheat, which is the main staple food in Algeria, will rise with the increase in population and GDP growth.
- Milk production growth to 2016: 22.4% to 2.1mn tonnes. Our projections are based on the government's plan to develop the dairy sector by improving breeding methods as well as restructuring and further privatising segments of the agriculture industry.
- Barley consumption growth to 2015/16: 18.6% to 1.8mn tonnes. The rise in barley consumption will be almost entirely driven by the demands of the livestock industry, as rising disposable incomes lead to increased demand for meat.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$2.3mn in 2012; growth to average 3.5% annually between 2010/11 and 2015/16.
- 2012 real GDP growth: 3.5% (up from 2.5% in 2011; predicted to average 4.2% over 2012- 2016).
- Food price inflation: 10.8% y-o-y in June 2012 (down from 14.2% y-o-y in March 2012).

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/456328_algeria_agribusiness_report_q4_2012.aspx) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/456328_algeria_agribusiness_report_q4_2012.aspx)

Key Developments

In order to decrease Algeria's reliance on dairy imports, the government has established several programmes to boost production, with the aim of expanding herd size, productivity and pasture areas. However, imports are expected to remain strong on the back of robust growth in demand for dairy products, especially for dry whole milk powder and non-fat dry milk powder. Algeria is a well-known dairy importer with one of the highest per capita consumption rates in the region. It ranked second behind China for whole dry milk powder imports in 2010/11, accounting for around 24% of the world total imports.

We expect Algerian wheat production to jump in the 2012/13 season starting in July 2012, as favourable soil conditions are currently supporting crops and yields. Algeria's chronic wheat production deficit is expected narrow in 2012/13 amid higher production and subdued growth in consumption. The government decided to ramp up utilisation rates for wheat mills in recent months, which increased supply on the domestic market and relieved prices. Record high production and relatively high ending stocks are likely to reduce the country's need for wheat imports and will help to alleviate global markets.

Fast Market Research (http://www.fastmr.com) is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.  For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.