New Market Research Report: Egypt Business Forecast Report Q1 2013

Fast Market Research recommends "Egypt Business Forecast Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 07 January 2013

Core Views

Egypt's macroeconomic recovery will continue apace in 2013, although we stress that growth will remain below pre-crisis levels. Exports and fixed investments could perform strongly over the coming quarters, assuming that the tentative stabilisation of the political environment seen since H212 holds.

We expect Egypt to sign an IMF Stand-By Arrangement at some point in early 2013, and believe that further foreign aid from the Gulf will also be necessary to avoid a full-blown balance of payments crisis.

Major Forecast Changes

We have adjusted our short-term bearish outlook on the Egyptian pound due to a larger-than-expected influx in foreign aid during the second half of 2012. That said, we still believe further depreciation for the currency is on the cards, and are forecasting the unit to average EGP6.3000/US$ in 2013.

View Full Report Details (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/513920_egypt_business_forecast_report_q1_2013.aspx) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/513920_egypt_business_forecast_report_q1_2013.aspx)

Key Risks To Outlook

A pronounced uptick in violent protest activity would do significant harm to an already weak tourism industry, and could hold back a more notable macroeconomic recovery.

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

Core Views

Major Forecast Changes

Key Risks To Outlook

Chapter 1: Political Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Political Risk Ratings

Domestic Politics

Morsi's First 100 Days: Honeymoon Over?

- Despite some significant failures, the first 100 days in office for Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi can be considered a relative success.

Foreign Policy

Cairo-Washington Relations: A Cooler Dynamic To Prevail

- We expect Egypt-US relations to cool under President Mohamed Morsi, as he seeks to redefine bilateral ties to make Cairo more assertive on the Middle Eastern stage.

Long-Term Political Outlook

Four Scenarios For The Coming Decade

- Egypt's transition into a fully fledged democracy is likely to take several years at least, and there is no guarantee that it will achieve this goal.

TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Economic Risk Ratings

Economic Activity

Economy Set To Turn A Corner?

- We are forecasting a slight acceleration in Egyptian real GDP growth over the coming quarters, with our baseline scenario seeing the economy expand by 3.5% in FY2012/13 (fiscal year running from July-June), up from 2.2% in FY2011/12.

TABLE: GDP BY EXPENDITURE

Balance of Payments

BOP Pressures To Remain Pronounced

- We are forecasting only a slight narrowing in Egypt's current account deficit in FY2012/13 (fiscal year running from July-June), with the shortfall coming in at 2.9% of GDP by the end of the year, down from 3.0% in FY2011/12.

TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT

Exchange Rate Policy

EGP: Multi-Year Lows Ahead

- The near-term outlook for the Egyptian pound remains bearish, in our view, with the currency trading near an eight-year low in the EGP6.1046/US$ area at the time of writing.

TABLE: EXCHANGE RATE

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