Recent Study: Mexico Commercial Banking Report Q4 2012

Fast Market Research recommends "Mexico Commercial Banking Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 23 October 2012

BMI View: Mexico's commercial banking sector is well placed for strong expansion in coming years on the back of robust consumer loan growth. However, we caution that many of the dynamics that will encourage increased consumer credit, including greater competition between banks and more stringent government regulation on the sector, will also precipitate moderately tighter profit margins.

We believe Mexico's banks are well positioned for strong growth in the coming years. The sector remains one of the most stable in the region, with a low leverage ratio (at 10.1) and loan to deposits of 90%, implying that loans are fully backed by domestic deposits.

Combined with increasing demand for consumer credit and greater competition between banks, we believe this implies that the sector is set to see sustained loan growth over the next five years. Indeed, after average 11.2% total loan growth between 2007 and 2011, we expect continued gains over the next half-decade, forecasting an expansion of 11.7% on the back of average consumer credit growth of 20.1%. Moreover, we forecast 10.6% average asset growth over the period - down slightly from the 10.8% recorded in the prior period - resulting in outstanding loans as a percentage of total assets rising from 38.8% in 2011 to 41.5% by 2016. Growing Consumer Credit We expect a substantial shift in the composition of the banking sector's loan portfolio, with consumer credit set to increase from comprising only 19.8% of total outstanding loans as of end-2011 to 30.1% as of 2016. There are several key dynamics that will bolster this rapid expansion:

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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

- Table: Levels (MXNbn) - Table: Levels (US$bn) - Table: Levels At May 2012 - Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) - Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 - Table: Projected Levels (MXNbn)- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)

SWOT Analysis

- Mexico Commercial Banking SWOT - Mexico Political SWOT - Mexico Economic SWOT- Mexico Business Environment SWOT

Business Environment Outlook

- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating - Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings - Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology- Table: Latin America Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

Global Commercial Banking Outlook

Regional Outlooks

- Stability Key For Regional Banks To Flourish - Table: A Strong Growth Outlook For Banks- Table: A Promising Customer Base

Latin America Banking Sector Outlook

- Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 - Table: Latin America Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings - Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios - Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 - Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) - Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011)- Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields

Mexico Specific Banking Sector Outlook

- Long-Term Growth for Banks, Despite Risks

Economic Outlook

- Table: Mexico - GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown, 2008-2016

Competitive Landscape

- Market Structure - Protagonists - Table: Protagonists In Mexico's Commercial Banking Sector - Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe - List Of Banks - Table: Universal Banks In Descending Order Of Size Of Assets -

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