Recent Study: Mexico Business Forecast Report Q2 2013

Fast Market Research recommends "Mexico Business Forecast Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 19 February 2013

Core Views - We have remain optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook, forecasting real GDP growth to average 4.0% between 2013 and 2022 on the back of Mexico's booming manufacturing sector, increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics.

That said, we believe that the ability for Mexico to reverse its severe macroeconomic imbalances and generate the robust growth necessary to propel it to 'developed market' status still hinges on the passage of substantive energy sector reform.

Though the Mexican peso will remain subject to substantial global market volatility, we expect the unit to appreciate modestly over the coming 12 months, maintaining our forecast for the peso to average MXN12.50/US$ in 2013. US markets look set to remain on a generally upward trajectory over the coming year following QE3, and investment and short-term capital inflows are likely to be robust given the country's improving macroeconomic fundamentals.

View Full Report Details (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/536369_mexico_business_forecast_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=201) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/536369_mexico_business_forecast_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=201)

Cartel activity will continue to weigh on growth for the foreseeable future, though we believe the situation is likely to improve in the long term.

Major Forecast Changes

We are modestly revising up our 2013 real GDP growth forecast, from 3.4% to 3.6% to take into account potential for a stronger export and investment picture, in light of our recent upward adjustment to US growth. That said, this still represents a noticeable slowdown from our estimated 4.0% growth in 2012.

Key Risks To Outlook

If the US growth story continues to gain traction, this would put less pressure on the central bank to engage in monetary easing, presenting upside risks to our call for 50 basis points worth of cuts by end-2013.

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

Core Views

Major Forecast Changes

Key Risks To Outlook

Chapter 1: Political Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Political Risk Ratings

Domestic Politics

More Optimistic On Reform, But Risks Remain

TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Education Reform To Bolster Growth And Pena Nieto's Popularity

Long-Term Political Outlook

Setting A New Tone In The US Relationship

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Economic Risk Ratings

Economic Activity

Stronger US Performance To Boost Growth

TABLE: GDP CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH

Exchange Rate Policy

MXN: Appreciation After A Rocky Start

TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST

TABLE: EXCHANGE RATE

Balance Of Payments

Weaker Exports To Widen Current Account Deficit

TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT

Debt Policy

Increasing State Debt Could Threaten Macroeconomic Credentials

TABLE: GOVERNMENT DEBT INDICATORS

Fiscal Policy

Greater Fiscal Consolidation Ahead

TABLE: FISCAL POLICY

Regional Outlook

Global Themes For 2013

Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast

The Mexican Economy To 2022

Stronger Growth Ahead, But Reforms Still Needed

TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Chapter 4: Business Environment

SWOT Analysis

BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings

Business Environment Outlook

Institutions

TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS

TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING

Infrastructure

TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY

Market Orientation

TABLE: LATIN AMERICA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS

TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS

Operational Risk

TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS

Regional Business Environment

Mexico And Colombia Best Placed To Attract Investment

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