South Africa Shipping Report Q3 2012 - New Study Released

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "South Africa Shipping Report Q3 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 19 October 2012

South Africa's ports sector continues to meet investment from state-run freight and logistics infrastructure Transnet, which will stand the country in good stead to deal with its expected economic development over the long term. More immediately, however, throughput at the country's facilities is threatened by two key global developments. The forecast contraction in the eurozone, South Africa's key trade partner, and the possibility of a hard landing in China could see volumes falter in the short term.

Headline Industry Data

- Richards Bay Port tonnage throughput in 2012 is forecast to increase by 1.2%. Over the midterm we project a 1.5% average annual increase.
- Port of Durban container throughput is forecast to slow to 1.2% in 2012, from 6.3% in 2011. Growth will average 6.8% per annum in the medium-term forecast period to 2016.
- 2012 total trade growth is forecast at 4.5%, slightly down on the 7.8% expansion registered in 2011.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/451427_south_africa_shipping_report_q3_2012.aspx) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/451427_south_africa_shipping_report_q3_2012.aspx)

Key Industry Trends

BMI Maintains South African Freight Forecasts Despite Iron Ore Line Expansion Plan

BMI believes plans to increase the capacity of a South African iron ore railway present upside risk to our rail freight forecasts for the country, and for South Africa's primary port for exporting the commodity. However, the slowdown in Chinese economic growth and the possibility of a hard landing in the world's second largest economy, could temper any volume growth over the medium term and so we are maintaining our growth forecast for the time being.

TPT Investment In South African Ports To Help Prolong Regional Importance

BMI believes investment plans announced by Transnet Prot Terminals (TPT) will be needed in the years to come if South Africa is to keep pace with demand at its ports. Further, we believe the country must continue to invest in its facilities if it is to remain competitive and continue to be the gateway to Africa that it has been previously.

Delays, Outages At DCT Minimised

South African port operator TPT, a subsidiary of state-owned transport company Transnet, announced in May that outages and delays at the Durban Container Terminal (DCT) Pier 2 resulting from Navis's SPARCS operating system have been minimised.

Key Risks To Outlook

On the domestic front there is a small risk of an uptick in political risk in South Africa in 2012, which, if escalated, could affect the country's trade outlook and consumer demand. External pressures come from the continuing eurozone crisis and the slowdown in China's growth. This second threat could prove particularly troublesome for South Africa's bulk ports, exports from which are hugely reliant on Chinese demand. China's massive stockpiles, coupled with a drop in economic growth, could have a huge effect on South Africa.

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