New Market Research Report: Gabon Oil & Gas Report Q1 2013

New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Gabon Oil & Gas Report Q1 2013"

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 22 February 2013

BMI View: We estimate oil production in Gabon stayed relatively flat in 2012 at 247,000 barrels per day (b/d) compared to 2011's 244,000b/d. Over the course of our forecast period, we expect production to continue trending downward to reach 234,000 b/d in 2016. Although a planned offshore licensing round and planned exploration hold upside risk to our forecasts. But without additional volumes from new discoveries, Gabon's oil production is set to decline as output falls from maturing fields. Efforts to develop the country's gas potential hold the prospect for further gains, as does a proposed new refinery that would allow the country to become a net exporter of refined products.

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The main trends and developments we highlight for Gabon's oil & gas sector are as follows:

- BMI expects oil production to fall from 246,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, to 234,000b/d in 2016, as fields mature.
- Planned deepwater exploration and a proposed regulatory overhaul in advance of the deepwater licensing round set for 2013, hold the largest upside risk to our forecasts. However, at this stage few new drilling campaigns have been announced so BMI has left its oil reserves forecasts unchanged.
- The introduction of more attractive terms ahead off the offshore licensing round may not be enough to support strong interest in the country's bidding round, despite prospective offshore acreage. Reports that the government is using audits to demand claw back and increase its equity stakes in existing licences could undermine the country's attractive business environment and undermine interest in the blocks on offer.
- Additionally, with tensions between oil sector works and the government still high following mass strikes which saw nearly all production offline for several days in 2010, the government's efforts to revamp its regulatory framework could be undermined by labour unions.
- With the existing refinery scheduled to be shutdown in 2016, at the same time as the new facility is to come online, Gabon would not only avoid the need to import expensive refined fuels, but would also gain the capacity to become a fuel exporter. However, until a final investment decision (FID) is made on this project, we have chosen not to include it in our forecast despite having already assessed its potential impact.
- Consumption of crude is likely to rise very gradually and from a low base. We expect demand to rise from 14,000b/d in 2012 to 15,000 by 2016.

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