"South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2012" Published

Fast Market Research recommends "South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 07 January 2013

BMI View: The government drive to support local production and reduce the country's reliance on imports, in addition to global epidemiological and demographic trends, are all positive factors contributing to long-term growth in the pharmaceutical market. However, deep segregation between private and public healthcare facilities continues to leave the vast majority of the population without medical care. BMI believes this will be rectified through the creation of the National Health Insurance scheme over the next decade, but in the meantime unemployment, lack of education and geographical inaccessibility to healthcare for the wider population will continue to hinder growth in the market.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: ZAR27.19bn (US$3.74bn) in 2011 to ZAR29.61bn (US$3.61bn) in 2012; +8.9% in local currency and -3.5% in US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: ZAR261.51bn (US$36.01bn) in 2011 to ZAR285.26bn (US$34.79bn) in 2012; +9.1% in local currency terms and -3.4% in US dollar terms.
- Medical devices: ZAR11.43bn (US$1.57bn) in 2011 to ZAR12.19bn (US$1.49bn) in 2012; +6.7% in local currency terms and -5.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast changed due to depreciation of the South African rand.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/504100_south_africa_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_report_q4.aspx) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/504100_south_africa_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_report_q4.aspx)

Risk/Reward Rating: South Africa's composite score is unchanged at 55.5 out of 100, with no shift in position at sixth in the matrix out of 30 markets surveyed in the Middle East and Africa. Despite the country's low risk profile being more favourable than its rewards profile, the country remains one of the most attractive in the MEA region.

Key Trends And Developments

The South African Department of Health awarded approximately one-third of an oral solids tender worth US$309mn to local drugmakers, namely Aspen Pharmacare and Adcock Ingram, which is indicative of the government's support of local manufacturers and the domestic pharmaceutical industry.

BMI Economic View: We hold to our view for the South African economy to undergo a slowdown in growth in 2012, forecasting that real GDP will expand by 2.5% following the 3.1% recorded for 2011. Although private consumption should hold up relatively well, serious headwinds from the global economy will inevitably take their toll on growth.

BMI Political View: We hold to our view that President Jacob Zuma is likely to be re-elected as president of the ruling African National Congress in December 2012, but we highlight that Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe could emerge as a credible challenger over the coming months.

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