"Tanzania Agribusiness Report Q1 2013" Published

New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 18 February 2013

BMI View: We are forecasting increases in production across the board for Tanzania in 2012/13. After droughts reduced harvests for corn, rice, sugar and coffee in 2011/12, sustained average or above-average levels of rainfall across most of the country have contributed to a much brighter outlook for 2012/13. Coffee in particular is expected to rebound with vigour, leading to a significant increase in exports that will go some way towards supporting an expected loosening of supply in 2013.

Key Forecasts

- Rice production growth to 2016/17: 30.6% to 1.5mn tonnes. The rice sector will benefit from increased investment from foreign companies, which plan to cultivate rice as a food security crop. New varieties also could boost yields in the medium term.
- Corn consumption growth to 2016/17: 32.1% to 4.8mn tonnes. A combination of enhanced yields (contributing to lower prices) and rising living standards is expected to drive corn consumption growth.
- Coffee production growth to 2016/17: 145.3% to 1.3mn 60kg bags. Although this eye-catching growth can partly be attributed to base effects, the sector is benefiting from investment in improved diseaseresistant trees, and from incentives to small producers.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 7.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), up from 7.0% in 2012; forecast to average 7.2% over 2012-2017.
- Consumer price inflation: 8.0% y-o-y average in 2013 (down from 16.2% in 2012).
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 14.0% y-o-y increase to US$1.9bn in 2012/13, forecast to increase by an annual average of 4.1% between 2011/12 and 2016/17.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/536581_tanzania_agribusiness_report_q1_2013.aspx?afid=201) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/536581_tanzania_agribusiness_report_q1_2013.aspx?afid=201)

Industry Developments

Export Trading Group (ETG), an African agricultural commodities supply chain manager, has received more than US$200mn from Pembani Remgro and the Carlyle Group. A substantial portion of the investment will go towards farms in Tanzania where the company will cultivate rice and barley. ETG has more than 7,000 employees across 30 African countries including Tanzania, where it operates 26 processing plants and 600 warehouses.

We have revised up our 2012/13 coffee forecast for Tanzania as good rainfall during plantings has aided flowering for the crop. We now forecast coffee production to increase 71.7% y-o-y to 917,000 60kg bags in 2012/13. This will come from base effects, as our output estimate for 2011/12 was revised down to 534,000 bags because of droughts in the country's main growing regions. The increase in output can also be attributed to the country's biennial production cycle, with the country entering an up-year. In line with this, the quality of the 2012/13 crop is expected to be much improved on 2011/12. Our expectations for longerterm growth in the sector are based on efforts to reinvest revenues from the industry into improving the prospects of farmers, making coffee growing once again an attractive prospect for rural people.

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