"South Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2012" Is Now Available At Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research recommends "South Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 18 October 2012

BMI View: We have revised down our forecast for 2011/12 corn harvest due to reduced yield estimations on the back of unfavourable weather conditions. However, we expect a strong rebound in output in 2012/13 because of strong plantings. For livestock, production will continue to be affected by cheap imports from Latin America, in spite of ongoing disputes over dumping from these countries on the domestic market. We have revised up our sugar production forecast for 2012/13 and expect rising prices to encourage plantings in the medium term. However, inefficiencies in the processing industry remain a concern over the coming years.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/451426_south_africa_agribusiness_report_q4_2012.aspx) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/451426_south_africa_agribusiness_report_q4_2012.aspx)

Key Forecasts

- Poultry production growth to 2015/16: 20.6% to 1.6mn tonnes. This will be driven by strong GDP per capita growth and a steady fall in unemployment. While authorities have begun to address the problem of cheap imported poultry being 'dumped' on the local market, we believe the poultry sector will face new challenges, such as elevated feed costs.
- Rice consumption growth to 2015/16: 21.3% to 897,900 tonnes. This will be supported by strong economic fundamentals. Growing demand will be mostly addressed through imports as the country doesn't not produce any major quantity of rice.
- Corn production growth to 2015/16: 28.3% to 14.0mn tonnes. The relatively high growth rate reflects the influence of base effects. Growth will be supported by an improved macroeconomic outlook and the introduction of new corn varieties that generate increased crop yields.
- Real GDP growth: 2.7% in 2012, down from 3.1% in 2011; predicted to average 3.5% over the five years to 2016. GDP per capita expected to rise to US$10,910 in 2016 (from an estimated - Unemployment: Predicted to fall to 23% in 2012 from 23.9% in 2011, then to 20.1% by 2016.
- Consumer price inflation: 5.6% in 2012, up from an average of 5.0% in 2011.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) fall to US$10.2bn in 2011/12; growth forecast to average 3.5% annually between 2010/11 and 2015/16.

Industry Outlook

We revised down our forecast for South African corn production for the 2011/12 season which started in May 2012, on the back of reduced yields estimates from the South African Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). We now expect corn output to reach 11.1mn tonnes (compared to our previous estimate at 12.2mn tonnes), as unfavourable weather conditions leaves yields lower.

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