South Africa Commercial Banking Report Q4 2012 - New Study Released

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "South Africa Commercial Banking Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 24 October 2012

 BMI View: We believe that South Africa's banking sector will see a slight slowdown in growth over the coming year, mirroring the deceleration of the wider economy. Longer-term, we are more upbeat given the potential stemming from the wider region as well as the lower-income groups in the domestic market. South African banks have suffered bad press of late, owing to downgrades from several major ratings agencies. In March 2012, both Moody's and Standard & Poor's (S&P) revised their outlook to negative from stable for several major banks, including Standard Bank (SBSA) and First Rand Bank. However, we highlight that the downgrades on the outlooks were due to the preceding downgrades of South Africa as a sovereign, rather than reflecting anything specific to the banks themselves. As S&P stated regarding SBSA: 'a lowering of the ratings on South Africa would trigger the same rating action on SBSA.' The banks themselves were assessed relatively positively: Standard Bank was rated 'strong' for its business position, and First Rand was rated 'strong' for its risk position, while both banks were considered to have 'adequate' funding and liquidity. Certainly, the industry-level data for South Africa are encouraging: the latest numbers indicate a mild pick-up in the pace of recovery for the banking sector as a whole. Total asset growth accelerated to 9.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December 2011 and the growth of private sector credit extension (PSCE) trended upward to reach 7.9% y-o-y in February 2012. The latter is a particularly encouraging sign as it indicates that banks are showing an appetite for lending; albeit still very subdued relative to the period prior to the global financial crisis.

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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

- Table: Levels (ZARbn) - Table: Levels (US$bn) - Table: Levels At March 2012 - Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) - Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 - Table: Projected Levels (ZARbn), 2009-2016- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn), 2009-2016

SWOT Analysis

- South Africa Commercial Banking SWOT - South Africa Political SWOT - South Africa Economic SWOT- South Africa Business Environment SWOT

Business Environment Outlook

- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating - Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings - Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology- Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

Global Commercial Banking Outlook

Regional Outlooks

- SSA Banking: Positive Outlook; Focus On Angola

Regional Banking Sector Outlook

- MEA Banking Sector Forecast Overview - Q4 2012 - Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 - Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings - Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios, 2011 - Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 - Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) - Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011)- Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields

South Africa Banking Sector Outlook

- Bank Loan Growth To Slow

Economic Outlook

- Table: South Africa - Economic Activity, 2011-2016

Competitive Landscape

- Market Structure - Protagonists - Table: Protagonists In South Africa's Commercial Banking Sector - Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe - Table: Registered Banks - Table: Registered Mutual Banks - Table: Registered Local Branches of Foreign Banks

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