New Market Study, "Greece Telecommunications Report Q4 2012", Has Been Published

New Fixed Networks market report from Business Monitor International: "Greece Telecommunications Report Q4 2012"

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 25 October 2012

BMI View: The Greek telecommunications market remains under pressure on all fronts and could well underperform for much of 2012 as the new government's austerity measures hit household budgets and individuals' propensity to spend on non-essential services. The mobile market - which BMI believes is overinflated through the continued inclusion of inactive accounts and multiple SIM ownership - is already contracting on the postpaid front; if large numbers of inactive prepaid accounts are also to be shed, we could see some significant revisions to our outlook for the market. Operators are responding with pricing changes and better value product bundles. Meanwhile, the 3G and mobile broadband markets are growing faster than expected and it is only demand for OTE's unbundled local loops that is preventing the fixed-line market from contracting faster than it should.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/464482_greece_telecommunications_report_q4_2012.aspx) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/464482_greece_telecommunications_report_q4_2012.aspx)

Key Data

- Mobile Growth was negative in Q112, though the contraction was not as sharp as had been expected, owing to increased take-up of prepaid and 3G/mobile broadband services. Wider availability of the operators' HSPA+ networks and increased access to spectrum have helped.
- Our 3G forecasts increased as the regulator reported q-o-q growth in excess of 13%, surpassing previous expectations for 2012 as a whole.
- Vodafone's ARPU dropped sharply in Q112 as further mobile termination rate reductions took effect and fewer postpaid subscribers resulted in lower contributions from non-basic services.

Key Trends & Developments

Cosmote, Vodafone and WIND Hellas spent much of H112 changing the prices of their business and mass-market mobile subscription plans, emphasising the lower costs for individual and family plans while beefing up enterprise plans and adding more 'free' monthly data and messaging allowances to further incentive consumers. At the same time, Vodafone and Cosmote have added the latest smartphones and tablet computers to their portfolios. The full impact of these efforts may not become apparent until Q412; even so, we expect margins to be compromised and ARPUs to be pressured.

Vodafone's withdrawal of its offer to acquire WIND Hellas from its creditors leaves WIND in a difficult position at a time when it most needs financial security and a clearer business strategy. Suggestions that WIND might partner with rival fixed broadband operator CYTA Hellas (which aspires to become an MVNO) have yet to bear fruit.

Greece's deteriorating telecoms sector and economic growth outlooks impacted on its scores for Country Rewards and Country Risk in BMI's Risk/Rewards analysis this quarter. Greece fell to the bottom of the regional ranking table, displacing chronic underperformer Portugal. The outlook remains bleak.

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