Recent Study: Germany Telecommunications Report Q4 2012

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Germany Telecommunications Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 23 October 2012

BMI View: Germany's mature mobile market is showing the first signs of saturation and our forecasts see limited growth in subscriber numbers. However, more positively for operators will be the opportunities offered by new smartphones and data services that are key to revenue growth. Data already makes up over two-thirds of non-voice revenue and income from voice services keeps falling. Broadband access remains an important driver and the roll-out of LTE maintains Germany's reputation for forward-looking telecoms operators. Consolidation in the cable market will provide robust competition for broadband services across different technologies.

Key Data

- Minor adjustment to mobile subscriber forecasts as recovery in Q212 was stronger than anticipated. Overall decline for 2012 still expected and penetration to hover around 140% over our five-year forecast period.
- Smartphones are accounting for around two-thirds of operator handset sales each quarter, offering greater data revenues, but adding to costs to subsidise these devices.
- Small increases in ARPU do not suggest any real change in market dynamics. BMI continues to forecast market average ARPU falling over our five-year forecast.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/479418_germany_telecommunications_report_q4_2012.aspx) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/479418_germany_telecommunications_report_q4_2012.aspx)

Key Trends And Developments

The future of third-ranked mobile operator E-Plus was resolved after parent copany KPN decided not to sell the unit. Mexico's America Movil acquired its desired 27% stake in KPN without losing E-Plus. Greater certainty over its future will certainly benefit E-Plus as it maintains a competitive stance in the mobile market, steadily gaining market share from the top two operators. Nevertheless, we believe the operator's low-cost strategy has its risks in the market as greater emphasis is placed on postpaid subscriptions and data services. There remains demand for low-cost services in the market, but catering to higher end subscribers will be important for boosting revenue.

Alternative fixed-line providers continue to provide strong competition for incumbent Deutsche Telekom. Kabel Deutschland agreed to acquire Tele Columbus in May 2012, and regional operator PrimaCom has attracted bids from Deutsche Telekom and Unitymedia. BMI believes that consolidation, particularly for smaller regional operators, is important to ensure competition remains robust. As subscribers continue to demand more data and faster speeds, building new infrastructure will remain expensive so economies of scale are key to maintaining the market's development.

Germany holds fourth place in our Risk/Reward Ratings, although ARPU continues to decline and subscriber growth is negligible. However, Germany's economy has withstood the shocks seen across the eurozone and is a core component of regional growth. That said, we see any expansion of the eurozone crisis as a downside risk to Germany and Western European markets.

Fast Market Research (http://www.fastmr.com) is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.  For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.