Just Released: "Croatia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2012"

Fast Market Research recommends "Croatia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 24 October 2012

BMI View: Croatian pharmaceutical market will continue to be weakened by economic recession in 2012 combined with cost-containment measures that will affect public sector funding. Generally speaking, the performance of Croatia's pharmaceutical, healthcare and medical device markets is increasingly tied to the country's challenging economic outlook. At best, Croatia's pharmaceutical market will continue to represent a modest prospect for foreign companies. despite the country's gradual convergence with EU legislation and standards, as part of its accession process.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/464487_croatia_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_report_q4_2012.aspx) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/464487_croatia_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_report_q4_2012.aspx)

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: HRK7.16bn (US$1.34bn) in 2011 to HRK7.09bn (US$1.30bn) in 2012; -1.0% in local currency and -3.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast up slightly from Q312 due to analyst intervention.
- Healthcare: HRK26.23bn (US$4.90bn) in 2011 to HRK25.46bn (US$4.66bn) in 2012; -2.9% in local currency and -5.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged.
Medical devices: HRK1.41bn (US$264mn) in 2011 to HRK1.39bn (US$255mn) in 2012; -1.3% in local currency and -3.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged.

Risk/Reward Rating: Croatia's RRRs are stable in our latest assessment following a downward revision in our assessment in Q312. Croatia relative position has slightly improved, up to 16th place from 17th place previously, as a result of weaker outlook for Serbia, which Croatia subsequently overtook. However, Croatia still remains one of the least attractive markets for multinationals in the CEE region.

Key Trends And Developments

- Our expectation for a full-year recession in Croatia this year and our expectations that the Kukuriku coalition government is pursuing severe austerity measures and the HZZO announcing substantial cuts to its 2012 healthcare budget, translates into a weaker outlook for Croatia's pharmaceutical, healthcare and medical device market.
- We project pharmaceutical expenditure at consumer prices will total HRK7.09bn (US$1.30bn) in 2012, down from HRK7.16bn (US$1.34bn) in 2011. With HZZO expenditure linked to its revenue, which is collected from employee contributions, the state of the economy, including the jobs market, has very direct implications for total healthcare expenditure.

BMI Economic View: We maintain our expectation for a full-year recession in Croatia this year equivalent to -1.5% in real GDP terms and a mild recovery of 1.0% in 2013. Data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics showing a strong contraction in industrial production in recent months further affirms our view.

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