Market Report, "Poland Power Report Q2 2013", Published

New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 18 March 2013

BMI View: Coal accounts for, and will continue to account for, the majority of Poland's electricity generating capacity, but pressure from the EU to reduce carbon emissions means that the country must look to low-carbon alternatives in the future. Poland has gained some extra time - it now has until 2020, rather than 2016, to implement stricter EU emissions targets - but even so, its first nuclear power plant will still not be ready for operations by then. Renewables are an obvious alternative, with wind power in particular gaining ground. Poland is also taking steps towards diversifying its sources of energy generation, with gasfired power plants emerging - we forecast these will triple their share of electricity generation between 2012 and 2022 - and an expected law on shale gas may boost this sector over the medium term.

BMI estimates that energy generation in Poland stood at 153.7 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2012, and forecasts that it will grow by 0.8% in 2013, to 155.0TWh. Coal will account for the majority of this electricity generation - although we do forecast that its share will drop over the course of our forecast period. A stable population, the economic crisis facing the eurozone and improved energy efficiency measures will keep energy generation growth to a minimum. BMI forecasts average annual growth of 1.8% between 2012 and 2022.

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New capacity will focus on coal and gas, with projects including a 1,075-megawatt (MW) coal-fired power plant in Kozienice - this will be constructed by Polimex and Hitachi - a 840MW combined cycle gas-fired plant launched for tender by PGE and Pulawy, and a joint-venture between Tauron and miner KGHM for a 850MW combined-cycle, gas-fired plant. In other developments, Polish firms are already preparing for the construction of a nuclear power plant towards the end of our 10-year forecast period. A contract was awarded for site characterisation and licensing services in January 2013, and Poland's leading three utilities have agreed to share the cost of constructing the power plant - an agreement that they are expected to formalise in March 2013..

The key developments in Poland's power sector are:

- In January 2013, PGE awarded WorleyParsons a PLN252mn (US$82mn) contract for the site characterisation, licensing and permitting services for Poland's first nuclear power plant. PGE aims to install 3000MW of nuclear power, with the first units begin operations in 2025.
- PKN Orlen awarded a consortium formed of SNC-Lavalin and General Electric a US$437mn construction contract for a 463MW combined cycle heat and power plant in Wloclawek. Construction work is expected to begin in March 2013.

The Polish government submitted a Transitional National Plan to the EC before January 1 2013 to enable it to delay the implantation of strict emissions targets from 2016 to 2020.

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