"Italy Food & Drink Report Q1 2013" Published

New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Italy Food & Drink Report Q1 2013"

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 22 February 2013

We have revised our real GDP forecast for Italy down from -2.1% to -2.3% in 2012 and from 0.1% to 0.0% in 2013 as the result of new austerity measures implemented by the government. In this context, the prognosis for Italian consumers remains relatively grim, as we forecast that private consumption will contract by 2.3% in 2012, significantly worse than the 1.6% contraction in 2009. We also expect private consumption to fall by a further 0.1% in 2013 as Italian households are hit by austerity measures. Unemployment will continue to weigh on consumption, and overall Italian household purchasing power is being eroded.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

- 2013 per capita food consumption = +0.7%; forecast to 2017 = +5.1%
- 2013 alcoholic drink value sales = +2.3%; forecast to 2017 = +10.3%
- 2013 soft drink value sales = +0.6% ; forecast to 2017 = +8.8%
- 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +0.8%; forecast to 2017 = +6.0%

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/536480_italy_food_drink_report_q1_2013.aspx?afid=201) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/536480_italy_food_drink_report_q1_2013.aspx?afid=201)

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Parmalat Benefits from Growth in US: Italy's largest food company Parmalat, which generates annual sales near EUR5bn, is benefiting from growth in the US. This is particularly important given ongoing weak consumer spending in Italy. Owned by France's Lactalis since 2011, dairy-focused Parmalat has improved its earnings guidance for the year to December 2012 on the back of a recent US deal. Parmalat's EBITDA is now likely to reach EUR430-440mn for 2012, a 15% increase on 2011. Parmalat's international business was a key factor behind the Lactalis deal, especially with broad weakness in Italy showing little sign of reversing. In the first nine months of 2012, Parmalat reported a 3% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in sales.

Rewe Seeks Expansion through Billa Investments: In October 2012 German retail giant Rewe announced it is seeking Italian expansion through an annual investment of EUR20mn (US$25mn) in its Billa supermarket chain in Italy through until 2016. The move will enable the firm to fortify its standing in northern Italy, an area less affected by the decline in consumer spending due to tough economic conditions. The investment will see the retailer opening medium-sized Billa stores across Italy. The stores will have a selling space of nearly 800 to 1,000 square metres.

Key Risks To OutlookOur outlook is conditional on developments both in the eurozone crisis and in Italian politics. Our core view that the eurozone will 'muddle through' is based on robust German demand allowing the eurozone economy to rebalance gradually. And although the substantial fiscal adjustment implemented over the past 18 months has put Italy on a sustainable fiscal trajectory, allowing credit conditions across the economy to ease gradually in 2013, the country's large public debt load leaves it vulnerable to crises of confidence.

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