New Market Research Report: Croatia Commercial Banking Report Q4 2012

New Financial Services research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 28 October 2012

BMI View: The challenging economic backdrop in Croatia will prevent a banking sector recovery in 2012. However, a combination of the LTRO and domestic national bank initiatives to increase liquidity in the system has largely mitigated risks of a liquidity crisis. We expect weak loan growth this year and expect asset quality to remain poor as borrowers find it difficult to service debts in a recessionary economic environment. The outlook for the Croatian banking sector has eased markedly since the start of the year. Regionally, a combination of the ECB's dual LTRO operations has eased the pressure on foreign parent banks' funding outlooks and the adoption of the Vienna II initiative in March has also reaffirmed parent bank commitment to subsidiaries. Domestically, the Croatian National Bank (HNB) has lowered reserve requirement ratio to 13.5% from 15.0% effective May 9 to increase loan provision to the corporate sector in an attempt to boost economic growth, which will also help ease liquidity pressures in the banking sector. While the crisis scenario for Croatian banks is now off the table, the recovery in lending is unlikely to be sustained this year. Data from the HNB reveals that loan growth came in below our expectations in 2011, at 5.6% year-on-year (y-o-y). Moreover, the trend points towards stagnation in lending and we forecast loan growth to fall to 4.6% in 2012 before recovering to 5.2% in 2013. While HNB liquidity provisions could provide an added boost to corporate borrowing, we expect household borrowing to remain firmly in the doldrums.

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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

- Table: Levels (HRKbn) - Table: Levels (US$bn) - Table: Levels At May 2012 - Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) - Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 - Table: Projected Levels (HRKbn), 2008-2016- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn), 2008-2016

SWOT Analysis

- Croatia Commercial Banking SWOT - Croatia Political SWOT - Croatia Economic SWOT- Croatia Business Environment SWOT

Business Environment Outlook

- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating - Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings - Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology- Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

Global Commercial Banking Outlook

Regional Outlooks

- CEE Banking: Three Banking Sectors With Bright Futures

Europe Banking Sector Outlook

- Table: Emerging Europe Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 - Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings - Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios - Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 - Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) - Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011)- Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields

Croatia Banking Sector Outlook

- Banking Sector Vulnerable To Eurozone Headwinds- Table: Croatia Banking sector, 2008-2016

Economic Outlook

- Table: Croatia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016

Competitive Landscape

- Market Structure - Protagonists - Table: Protagonists In Croatia's Commercial Banking Sector - Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe - List Of Banks - Table: Bank Peer Groups And Their Share In Total Bank Assets- Table: Six Largest Banks In Croatia

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