Germany Commercial Banking Report Q4 2012: New Research Report Available At Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research recommends "Germany Commercial Banking Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 27 October 2012

Private sector involvement, higher capital buffers and ample liquidity provisions by the European Central Bank (ECB) have successfully defused the risk of widespread contagion from Greece's debt restructuring earlier in the year.

However, we do not believe that the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has now been resolved. On the contrary, we continue to see major risks to the stability of the German commercial banking sector given the precarious economic situation in Spain and Italy, with the implosion of the construction sector in the former a particularly pertinent concern for European banks. German banks have already been undertaking major write-downs on the value of their bond portfolio holdings, and we believe that renewed spikes in government bond yields in Spain and Italy are likely to see this trend continue for the foreseeable future.

Concerns could rapidly flare up closer to home as well, as the French election is set to produce a new president, who could be on a direct collision course with policies advocated in Berlin (see our online service, April 23, 'Post Election Risks Remain Salient').

Combined with the recent break-up of the Dutch coalition government, we see a growing possibility that core eurozone government bonds could be entering choppy waters and that the pro-austerity agenda advocated in Germany may increasingly fall on deaf ears. This could see a more pronounced decline in the value of bond portfolio holdings by German banks, in our view, having already contracted by an average 7.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2011, and posting a 22nd consecutive month of negative y-o-y growth in February (-5.6%).

With client loan growth also firmly in negative territory since October 2011, coming in at -1.6% y-o-y in February according to provisional Bundesbank data, we see few reasons to see robust - if any - asset growth in the German banking sector in the near future.

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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

- Table: Levels (EURbn) - Table: Levels (US$bn) - Table: Levels At May 2012 - Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) - Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 - Table: Projected Levels (EURbn)- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)

SWOT Analysis

- Germany Commercial Banking SWOT - Germany Political SWOT - Germany Economic SWOT- Germany Business Environment SWOT

Business Environment Outlook

- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating - Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings - Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology- Table: Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

Global Commercial Banking Outlook

Regional Outlooks

- Banking Sector: Hitting Turbulence

Germany Banking Sector Outlook

- Developed States Banking Sector Forecast Overview - Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 - Table: Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings - Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios - Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 - Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) - Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011)- Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields

Germany Specific Banking Sector Outlook

- Banking Sector Offers Limited Safety

Economic Outlook

- Table: Germany - Macroeconomic Forecasts, 2012-2016

Competitive Landscape

- Market Structure - Protagonists - Table: Protagonists In Germany's Commercial Banking Sector - Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe - List Of Banks- Table: Top 50 Banks By Assets

Company Profiles

- Deutsche Bank - Table: Stock Market Indicators - Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn) -

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