Market Report, "Switzerland Business Forecast Report Q2 2013", Published

New Country Reports research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 21 February 2013

Core Views - Switzerland's medium-term growth trajectory will be driven primarily by consumer and investment spending, with the potential for the government to step in and boost spending in the event that the situation in the eurozone crimps Swiss recovery.

The Swiss National Bank has set a ceiling on the Swiss franc's value versus the euro in the face of substantial appreciatory pressures resulting from the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. This will help to protect the country's export sector from a severe loss of competitiveness and thereby limit the impact of external turbulence on near-term economic growth. However, the massive scale of the monetary easing involved in such foreign exchange intervention could dramatically inflate property prices if maintained into the medium term.

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Major Forecast Changes

There are no major forecast changes this quarter.

Key Risks To Outlook

Downside Risks To Real Growth Forecasts: If the situation in the eurozone continues to deteriorate without mitigating action from eurozone policymakers, a regional financial crisis akin to that seen in 2008 may result. Such an outcome would have a severe impact upon global growth, hitting the Swiss export sector and by extension real GDP growth.

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

Core Views

Major Forecast Changes

Key Risks To Outlook

Chapter 1: Political Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Political Risk Ratings

Political Outlook

Pressure On Government To Overhaul Banks Continues To Mount

- Following the closure of private bank Wegelin after the US Justice Department secured a guilty plea for aiding American citizens in tax evasion, the Swiss government will come under greater pressure to overhaul the secretive banking industry. Although the government is likely to resist some reforms that could dilute the international competitiveness of the finance industry, it will remain a key target for European and US policymakers that are facing tough demands at home to clamp down on tax avoidance and evasion.

TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Economic Risk Ratings

Economic Activity I

Stronger Growth In 2013, But Recovery Still Volatile

- The Swiss economy perked up in the third quarter, buoyed by household and government spending, as well as a gradual improvement in exports. We expect the recovery to firm in 2013, partly as a result of efforts by the European Central Bank to stabilise sovereign funding markets in the eurozone periphery. We warn, however, that there remains a risk of a renewed flair up in the eurozone crisis, which would hit confidence in the private sector and damage demand for Swiss exports.

TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Economic Activity II

Inflation To Return In 2013

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