New Market Study Published: Belgium Business Forecast Report Q2 2013

New Country Reports research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 18 February 2013

Core Views - Despite a promising recovery from the global financial crisis, the Belgian economy is now struggling against mounting headwinds from the eurozone.

A particular concern is the national debt which, at close to 100% of GDP, leaves Belgium vulnerable to a deterioration in risk sentiment and a slowdown in economic growth.

Although the formation of a new government has ended 18 months of political paralysis, the six-party coalition could yet struggle to overcome ideological differences in order to tackle much-needed fiscal and economic reform.

Major Forecast Changes

There are no major forecast changes this quarter.

Key Risks To Outlook

Downside Risks To Medium-Term Growth: There are significant downside risks to our economic growth forecasts, particularly stemming from the impact of fiscal consolidation and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.

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Upside Risks To Inflation: Further euro weakness and the potential for a fresh rally in global energy prices could in turn keep inflation elevated.

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

Core Views

Major Forecast Changes

Key Risks To Outlook

Chapter 1: Political Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Political Risk Ratings

Domestic Politics

Political Challenges For 2013

- We believe that Belgium, and the eurozone more broadly, could fare better in 2013 than 2012 as a result of several favourable policy developments in the second half of last year. However, Belgian policymakers will face several challenges in 2013, not least from the sluggish economic recovery and growing pressure to sign up for further European integration.

TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Economic Risk Ratings

Economic Activity

A Tough Year Ahead

- The Belgian economy has lost momentum and will post anaemic growth in 2013. The impact on private sector confidence of the previous escalation in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has been palatable and will continue to underpin weak data in the coming quarters. However, we view constructively recent policy developments in the eurozone, which should support a firming recovery towards the end of 2013.

TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Chapter 3: Key Sectors

Petrochemicals

TABLE: BELGIUM SECTOR DATA AND FORECASTS, 2010-2017

Freight Transport

TABLE: AIR FREIGHT

TABLE: RAIL FREIGHT

TABLE: ROAD FREIGHT

TABLE: MARITIME FREIGHT

Other Key Sectors

TABLE: PHARMA SECTOR KEY INDICATORS

TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS

TABLE: FREIGHT SECTOR KEY INDICATORS

Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions

Global Outlook

Growth May Be Turning The Corner

TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS

TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS

TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS (%)

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