Just Released: "Greece Business Forecast Report Q1 2013"
New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "Greece Business Forecast Report Q1 2013"
| Published on 02 February 2013 |
by Bill Thompson
(WireNews+Co)
Boston, MA
The Greek economy will linger on in 2013 as deep fiscal retrenchment and internal devaluation take a damaging toll.
The prospect of further spending cuts and tax hikes will ensure that demonstrations and national strikes remain a key feature of the political landscape over the medium term.
The current account deficit has collapsed faster than we had expected, raising the prospect of a return to surplus over the medium term.
This is symbolic of Greece's transition towards a more balanced and sustainable economic growth model.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised our 2013 real GDP growth forecast to -4.1% from -2.7% previously.
View Full Report Details (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/529241_greece_business_forecast_report_q1_2013.aspx?afid=201)
We have revised our 2013 and 2014 current account forecasts to -1.6% and 0.0% respectively, from -8.5% and -7.3% previously, following signs that the rebalancing process is accelerating rapidly.
Key Risks To Outlook
Upside Risks To Deficit Forecasts: The severity of the fiscal consolidation programme and the public backlash mean that the scope for slippage will remain pronounced.
Downside Risks To Economic Growth Forecasts: Should Greece decide to leave the eurozone, the recession would deepen in the short-to-medium term as the banking system would implode and the cost of energy and food imports would rocket.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Executive Summary
- Core Views
- Major Forecast Changes
- Key Risks To Outlook
- Chapter 1: Political Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Political Risk Ratings
- Political Outlook
- The Toxic Politics Of Austerity - The Greek government has managed to get yet another austerity bill through parliament in what has now become a rather formulaic sequence involving deeper recession, missed targets, new austerity, more protests and heightened financial turmoil.
- TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Instability - Greece's political landscape is likely to become more tumultuous in the coming years. The legacy of fiscal profligacy and economic distortions will leave an indelible mark on the Greek economy and society, with political voices potentially becoming more fragmented. We therefore expect a prolonged bout of austerity and instability in the decade ahead.
- Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Economic Risk Ratings
- Economic Activity
- Turning The Corner In 2013 - The Greek economy remains deep in the mire and heading towards a fifth year of depression in 2013. However, we maintain that the pace of economic contraction is set to ease towards the end of 2013 as a result of the government being granted a two -year extension on its fiscal consolidation targets, an improvement in foreign demand and monetary expansion from the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.
- TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
- Debt Policy
- Debt Restructuring: From PSI To OSI - The eurozone's finance ministers have agreed to a range of measures aimed at restoring Greek debt sustainability. However, we continue to argue that, without further haircuts, meeting the IMF's sustainability criteria would be extremely challenging.
- Balance Of Payments
- Current Account Surplus On The Horizon
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Posted 2013-02-02 16:47:00
