New Market Research Report: Latvia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013

Fast Market Research recommends "Latvia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 07 January 2013

Core Views

Latvia's economic recovery will continue into 2013 and beyond, although we emphasize that strong headline real GDP growth is largely a result of statistical base effects. Uncertainty and rising unemployment will also hit household consumption at a time when the government remains firmly committed to fiscal austerity.

We anticipate the moderation in consumer prices in Latvia to remain in place throughout 2012 before picking up slightly in 2013. We forecast inflation to average 2.0% in 2013 and 1.9% in 2014, down from an expected 2.0% in 2012. Given the weak state of the domestic economy, we believe imported inflation will be a key driver of price pressures this year.

View Full Report Details (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/513926_latvia_business_forecast_report_q1_2013.aspx) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/513926_latvia_business_forecast_report_q1_2013.aspx)

The Latvian government's commitment to joining the eurozone remains firmly intact, and we view the government's target date of 2014 as increasingly plausible. However, we expect that the Latvian public's negative view towards the currency bloc will pose challenges for the government to convince the electorate. Nonetheless, we believe that the positive economic benefits accession will bestow on Latvia will tip the balances in the government's favour.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our inflation expectations, and now expect consumer prices to grow by 2.0% in 2013 and 1.9% in 2014, from a previous forecast of 3.2% and 3.0% respectively.

Key Risks To Outlook

The prevailing risk to our forecasts for Latvia remains the persistent eurozone sovereign debt crisis. A further deepening of the crisis would pose downside risks to most of our forecasts.

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

Core Views

Major Forecast Changes

Key Risks To Outlook

Chapter 1: Political Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Political Risk Ratings

Domestic Politics

Eurozone Accession Checklist Cleared

- Latvia remains on track for eurozone accession in 2014, with inflation, public debt and fiscal dynamics all likely to remain within Maastricht treaty boundaries over our forecast period. While domestic sentiment towards the EU has turned less positive in recent years, we see little evidence to suggest that there is any significant domestic opposition to the adoption of the euro building.

TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Long-Term Political Outlook

Stagnant Growth And Ethnic Tensions Key Themes To 2021

- The coming decade for Latvia will be marked by the scars of the global financial crisis of 2008/09. The country's governments will struggle to return the economy to pre-crisis growth and will pay the political and social price for this inability to promote growth and ease ethnic tensions.

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Economic Risk Ratings

Economic Activity

Strong Headline Growth Conceals Economic Frailty

- We maintain our forecast for Latvia to post robust headline real GDP growth of 4.2% in 2012 and 3.9% in 2013, although we stress that recent real GDP growth is largely a result of statistical base effects following the severe economic contraction between 2008 and 2009 that saw 18% of total gross domestic product lost.

TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Balance Of Payments

Stable Current Account Dynamics Ahead

View Full Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=513926&dt=t)
(http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=513926&dt=t)

Fast Market Research (http://www.fastmr.com) is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.