New Market Report Now Available: Norway Business Forecast Report Q1 2013

Fast Market Research recommends "Norway Business Forecast Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 05 January 2013

Core Views

We are forecasting real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2012, dipping to 2.1% in 2013. The former would represent the highest full-year growth figure since 2004, while the latter would be in line with the 2000-2008 annual average.

The Norwegian economy has enjoyed the tailwind of a debt-driven property boom over the past two decades - a fact we suspect will soon prove a serious macroeconomic weakness. Household debt and property prices appear to have reached unsustainable levels.

Norway's next parliamentary election will be held in September 2013, with Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg's Labour Party attempting to retain its ruling coalition. At this point, however, the opposition coalition led by the Conservative Party looks most likely to take over the reins of government.

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With inflation remaining low, we forecast that the Norges Bank benchmark discount rate will remain on hold until Q4 2013, before rising steadily until it reaches 4.0% in 2016.

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

Core Views

Chapter 1: Political Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Political Risk Ratings

Domestic Politics

2013 Elections Loom Large - Norway's next parliamentary election will be held in September 2013, with Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg's Labour Party attempting to retain its ruling coalition with the Socialist Left and the Centre Party. At this point, however, the opposition coalition led by the Conservative Party looks most likely to take over the reins of government.

TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Economic Risk Ratings

Economic Activity

Slowdown In 2013

- We are forecasting real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2012, dipping to 2.1% in 2013. The former would represent the highest full-year growth figure since 2004, while the latter would be in line with the 2000-2008 annual average. The oil sector boom will have positive wealth effects for the rest of the economy, including private consumption, but business investment is likely to weaken in 2013/14.

TABLE: GDP BY EXPENDITURE, REAL GROWTH %

Monetary Policy

On Hold Until Late 2013

- We forecast that the Norges Bank benchmark policy rate will remain on hold until Q4 2013, before rising steadily until it reaches 4.0% in 2016.

TABLE: MONETARY POLICY

Chapter 3: Business Environment

SWOT Analysis

BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings

Chapter 4: Key Sectors

Oil & Gas

Executive SummaryBMI VIEW

Industry Forecast

TABLE: OIL & GAS - HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS, 2009-2016

Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario

Other Key Sectors

TABLE: FOOD AND DRINK SECTOR KEY INDICATORS

TABLE: AUTOS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS

TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS

TABLE: PHARMA SECTOR KEY INDICATORS

Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions

View Full Table of Contents

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