New Market Report: Romania Tourism Report Q4 2012

New Consumer Goods research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 27 October 2012

The Romania Tourism Report examines the long-term potential of the tourism sector but also highlights short-term risks associated with the sharp slowdown in the eurozone - the major source region for inbound tourists. Overall, BMI continues to forecast slight negative annual growth in foreign arrivals in 2012, with a return to positive growth next year. Further modest recovery is anticipated over the latter part of the forecast period.

The report examines statistical data on the number of cross border foreign visitors by region and country (including same-day visitors), flagging the changing dynamics over recent years, with the relative importance of some traditional source markets showing signs of weakening.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/456370_romania_tourism_report_q4_2012.aspx) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/456370_romania_tourism_report_q4_2012.aspx)

Domestic tourism by Romanian residents is also considered, which is an area offering considerable potential over the longer term as Romanian per capita incomes rise.

The report also looks at the growth strategies being employed by key players in the Romanian tourism sector, particularly airlines, as opportunities emerge in a still nascent market. The collapse of Malev Hungarian Airlines, which offered numerous routes to Romania, in February 2012 also offers considerable opportunities for rival airlines.

Customs data for January-May show slight positive growth in foreign arrivals of 0.5% year-on-year (y-oy), which includes same-day visitors. This is a turnaround after negative growth in the earlier months of the year. In April and May, there was relatively strong growth in the number of visitors of 5% and 9% yo- y respectively.

After a poor early start to the year, which BMI expected, the hospitality sector reported a surprisingly strong set of results for foreign and domestic tourists in the first five months of 2012. The total number of tourist nights in all accommodation establishments increased by 13% y-o-y, with both foreign and domestic tourist nights up by a similar percentage. This was slightly ahead of growth rates recorded over the same period in 2011.

Over the last quarter BMI have revised the following forecasts and views:

- Given the positive outturn for foreign visitors in recent months, BMI has edged up its annual growth forecast for arrivals to -0.7% in 2012, from -1.2%, with positive growth forecast from 2013.
- BMI's real GDP growth forecasts for the major source region, the eurozone, have been lowered slightly for 2012 to -0.6% from -0.5%, rising to only 0.9% growth (1.2% previously) in 2013.
- BMI has revised its average 2012 and 2013 Romanian leu exchange rate forecasts to RON4.4200/EUR and RON4.4500/EUR, from RON4.3900/EUR and RON4.4000/EUR respectively.
- In the hospitality sector, we were surprised by the resilience of foreign and domestic tourism so far in 2012, given weaker domestic demand conditions and the poor state of the eurozone. A weaker leu will have helped to stimulate inbound tourism.
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