Canada Business Forecast Report Q2 2013 - New Report Available

Fast Market Research recommends "Canada Business Forecast Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 19 February 2013

Core Views - The Canadian economy faces major external headwinds, but should avoid falling into recession. The mix of growth will continue to shift away from private consumption as household balance sheets remain under pressure.

Still-high global commodity prices will support Canada's terms of trade. With a strong Canadian dollar and low interest rates, business investment will be a major driver of growth, though the trade balance will remain in deficit.

Among developed states, and in stark contrast to the neighbouring US, Canada has an enviable fiscal record. We see very limited risk of a Canadian fiscal crisis and, in fact, see debt ratios declining from this year onwards, with the budget returning to surplus by the end of the forecast period in 2017.

Key Risks To Outlook

Downside Risks To Growth: A collapse of the European monetary union would send shock waves through global trade and financial markets. A hard economic landing in China would lower demand for commodities, damaging Canada's terms of trade. Weakness in the domestic real estate market also poses a threat.

View Full Report Details (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/536349_canada_business_forecast_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=201) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/536349_canada_business_forecast_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=201)

Downside Risks To Long-Term Forecast: The major historic weakness of Canadian economic growth has been low productivity. Although we expect a pick-up in private investment in the near future, without a structural improvement in business investment and key national industries, average GDP growth to 2022 could be closer to 2.0% than the 2.3-2.4% that we expect.

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

Core Views

Key Risks To Outlook

Chapter 1: Political Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Political Risk Ratings

Domestic Politics

Resource Nationalism In Focus

- Foreign state-owned companies' investment in Canada's booming resource extraction sectors is in the spotlight, with the federal government reluctantly approving two major takeovers in December 2012 and introducing strict new guidelines for future acquisitions.

TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Strong Foundation, But Some Challenges From Within

- Canada has one of the highest long-term political ratings in the world, reflecting its history of stable governance and strong institutions. Nevertheless, Canada faces political challenges over the coming decade, including a potential shift in power from east to west.

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Economic Risk Ratings

Economic Activity

Slowdown Underway

- With household consumption remaining subdued and the residential construction sector due for a correction, we continue to forecast overall economic weakness in the coming quarters. Our real GDP growth estimates remain 2.0% for 2012 and 1.9% for 2013, with a rebound to 2.5% in 2014.

TABLE: GDP BY EXPENDITURE, REAL GROWTH %

TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Monetary Policy

BoC To Remain On The Sidelines Until 2014

- Low inflation, a strong Canadian dollar and a weakening real estate market suggest that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will maintain rates at current levels for several quarters yet. We stll project the BoC's benchmark overnight rate will end 2013 at its current level of 1.00%, and only beginning to rise in 2014, to a year-end level of 1.75%.

TABLE: MONETARY POLICY

Chapter 3: Key Sectors

Agribusiness

TABLE: WHEAT PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2012-2017

View Full Table of Contents
(http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=536349&dt=t&afid=201)

Fast Market Research (http://www.fastmr.com?afid=201) is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.  For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.