Just Released: "Australia Freight Transport Report Q4 2012"

New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 17 October 2012

With Australia's fortunes very much tied in with China's, due to the latter's position as its top export partner, news that Chinese Q212 headline GDP growth came in at 7.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) - versus consensus expectations of 7.7% and the Q112 figure of 8.1% - is significant. Although we believe that economic activity is slowing much faster than the headline figure suggests, the sequential fall in real GDP growth supports our view that full-year expansion will come in below the 8.0% watershed. With Australia's freight sector reliant on the Chinese economy, a slowing of demand will mean that as China requires less iron ore and coal, for instance, exports will be hit as a result.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/451204_australia_freight_transport_report_q4_2012.aspx) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/451204_australia_freight_transport_report_q4_2012.aspx)

It is the shipping sector that is providing the main thrust for the freight industry as a whole during 2012, with impressive tonnage throughput expected at the Port of Brisbane - slightly under 10% - while the ports of Sydney and Melbourne are set to perform steadily this year. However, the country's rail, road and air freight sectors are set to endure a relatively torrid 12 months, with all forecast to register annual growth below 1%.

Solid traffic performance underpins the stable outlook predicted for the Australian transport industry by Fitch Ratings in a newly published report in June 2012. With traffic levels performing consistently well in recent times, Fitch forecasts that this is to continue, which is in contrast to both the US and European countries. However, with Australia highly dependent on the commodities sector, a fall-off in this area could leave the country's freight industry floundering as traffic levels would reduce as a result.

Headline Industry Data

- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 0.04%.
- 2012 rail freight tonnage is forecast to rise by 0.93%.
- 2012 Port of Melbourne tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 3.26%.
- 2012 Port of Sydney tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by 4.80%.
- 2012 road freight is forecast to increase by 0.68%.
- 2012 total real trade growth is forecast at 0.70%.

Key Industry Trends

China Slowdown Hits Australia Port Expansion Plans

The economic slowdown affecting China is beginning to have a detrimental effect on Australia's port expansion plans, evidenced by the news that an AUD9bn (US$8.75bn) extension project at Abbot Point has been scrapped. With commodity-rich Australia boasting China as its main customer, any slowdown in the latter's growth outlook will lead to a slackening in demand for Australian coal and iron ore.

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