Now Available: Taiwan Freight Transport Report Q1 2013

New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Taiwan Freight Transport Report Q1 2013"

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 18 February 2013

BMI has again reduced its Taiwan GDP growth estimate and forecast, respectively, for 2012 and 2013. We continue to see the local economy picking up pace as we move into 2013, but the recovery will be less vigorous than we originally expected, for a variety of reasons. They include external factors such as a rebalancing economy in mainland China, and a very slow recovery in the eurozone.

The internal picture also gives us cause for concern. We believe that investment interest in Taiwan has cooled. And while the tech industry is leading the recovery, we believe local companies are no longer as innovative as they once were, and Taiwan is beginning to fall 'behind the curve' in this respect. Add to this a banking system in need of deregulation and reform, and a political scene that does not seem to support further economic reforms, and the conclusion is that the island's long-term growth trend may be coming down. In fact, we have now cut back our longer-term growth projections, to an annual GDP average of 3.9% in 2013-2017, compared to 4.7% previously.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/536580_taiwan_freight_transport_report_q1_2013.aspx?afid=201) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/536580_taiwan_freight_transport_report_q1_2013.aspx?afid=201)

The less optimistic economic outlook will have a significant impact on freight transport activity. We still expect an upturn in 2013 port activity levels, but this will be in the low single percentage digits. Broadly speaking, Kaohsiung, Taiwan's largest port, remains the most resilient. Keelung, the country's second largest port, will recover weakly from a difficult 2012. Air freight, rail and road haulage will all experience recoveries in 2013, but these will be confined to the low single digits in percentage terms.

Headline Industry Data

- 2013 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 2.2% to 1.129mn tonnes.
- 2013 rail freight is forecast to edge up by 1.1% to 14.364mn tonnes.
- Maintaining its record of year-on-year growth, road freight is forecast to grow by 2.2% to 663.026mn tonnes in 2013.
- 2013 Port of Kaohsiung tonnage throughput forecast to rise by 1.5% to 124.947mn tonnes, over the medium term we project an annual average increase of 1.6%.
- Port of Keelung will see tonnage recovering by 1.0% to 70.099mn tonnes in 2013.
- 2013 total trade is forecast to rise by 3.25% in real terms, compared to a 1.95% contraction in the preceding year.

Key Industry Trends - Government Plans Big Airport Expansion at Taoyuan International

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