Just Released: "China Retail Report Q2 2013"

New Retailing research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 05 March 2013

The China Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on China's economic outlook of the disruptive process of rebalancing following the peak reached by the country's economic imbalances.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Chinese retail market while minimising investment risk. It also explores the impact of the risk of a global recession on the Chinese consumer as well as on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by leading players in the Chinese retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the market.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/541177_china_retail_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=201) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/541177_china_retail_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=201)

Chinese per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 46% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 49%. China comes first (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings.

Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be one of the outperformers through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 42% between 2013 and 2017, from US$124.46bn to US $176.74bn as high disposable incomes in urban centres create an aspirational consumer base.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in government efforts to harness rural spending power, which should ultimately broaden the consumer base susceptible to modern retailing and branding.Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

- The main forecast change we have made since our last report is in the speed of rebalancing in the Chinese economy. We now expect consumer's share of GDP to rise at a faster rate than previously forecast, with consumption (private and public) now expected to rise above 50% of the economy by 2014 (rather than in 2016) and to continue to rise in importance thereafter.
- While private consumption should outperform in 2012 as a whole, and in 2013, this will not be the result of a consumer boom, but rather a sharper deterioration in investment and export. There is little chance that the consumer can carry growth in China as investment spending slows as falling home prices and rising unemployment will weigh on consumer spending. BMI forecasts headline consumer spending to grow at 8.0% in 2012 and 2013, which marks a downward revision from our previous forecast of 8.4% for both years.

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