New Market Research Report: Japan Oil & Gas Report Q2 2013

Fast Market Research recommends "Japan Oil & Gas Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 04 March 2013

BMI View: Japan's consumption of imported oil and natural gas has increased as a result of nuclear power generation losses in the wake of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. Over the longer term, a reassessment of energy strategy means nuclear will play a less prominent role and, inevitably, gas will have to make up part of the shortfall. This suggests Japan will become a still bigger player in global LNG purchasing, signs of which have already begun to show in view of Japan Petroleum Exploration Co.'s plans to develop its first LNG receiving terminal on the country's Pacific Coast.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Japan's oil and gas sector are:

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- Japanese oil consumption is expected to decline slightly in 2013 to approximately 4.47mn barrels per day (b/d). Volumes rose by an estimated 145,000b/d in 2011 following the earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March of the year, which resulted in greatly reduced nuclear generation and a significant upturn in oil- and gas-fired power generation to compensate. However, we believe that this was a one-off increase, and that Japanese oil consumption will rise only slightly over the long-term. By 2016, the country is expected to be consuming 4.52mn b/d of oil, with demand predicted to remain relatively stable through 2022, at which point we forecast that it will reach 4.55mn b/d.
- A Japanese consortium consisting of oil companies, oil refiners, engineering firms and state-run energy researcher Japan Oil, Gas & Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) in April 2012 announced a technological breakthrough in their research on the conversion of gas into synthetic fuels. Calling their research the Japan-GTL process, the consortium promises that the breakthrough will bring down the cost of gas to liquids (GTL) conversion.
- BMI gas consumption estimates were revised upwards following the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. We estimate that gas demand hit 110.0bcm in 2012, and that this figure will rise to 111.4bcm in 2013. Through 2015/2016, demand is expected to rise steadily towards 112.3bcm - largely in the form of imported LNG. By 2022, the country is expected to be consuming at least 113.7bcm of gas.
- Japanese Petroleum Exploration Co. (Japex) has proposed a new LNG receiving terminal to be located in the Port of Soma, Fukushima prefecture. The new terminal highlight's Japan's shift in preference away from Nuclear power and towards LNG, and we expect that the terminal will have a ready market in Northern Japan.
- Japan Petroleum was recently able to extract shale oil from a deposit in Akita prefecture, a first for Japan. However, deposits at the Ayukawa and neighbouring gas fields are estimated at just 5mn barrels, or approximately one day's worth of oil consumption for Japan, underscoring the country's negligible natural oil resources and its dependence on imports.
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