Recent Study: China Defence & Security Report Q2 2013


New Defense research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research


Published on 03 May 2013

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by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co)

Boston, MA

The China Defence and Security Report for Q2 2013 examines the country's strategic position in Asia and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.

The report examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The intention is to provide a clear and concise discussion of these issues. The report's general conclusion is that China remains firmly on its long-established course of military modernisation, in spite of the friction that this modernisation path is causing.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/589115_china_defence_security_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=201)

Domestically, China is now close to completing its once-in-a-decade leadership transition - a process that has proceeded relatively calmly. Breaking with the precedent set by previous Chinese leaders, new Communist Party general secretary Xi Jinping has already assumed the chairmanship of the Central Military Commission from the outgoing Hu Jintao, and this should bring certainty and stability to China's sometimes complex civil-military relations.

However, tensions between China and its neighbours are reaching potentially dangerous levels. Relations with Japan plummeted in 2012 over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, and the election of the hawkish Shinzo Abe as Japanese prime minister in December has produced a Japan that is far less tolerant of China's perceived bullying tactics. Meanwhile, relations with the Philippines also remain extremely poor. In January, Manila said it wanted to take the issue of its territorial dispute with China to UN arbitration, a route that Beijing has so far opposed. However, the Chinese side will look bad if, as expected, it declines this peaceful route to a lasting solution, in spite of what it insists are legally watertight claims to the territories in question.

China's rapid military modernisation, as well as its aggressive stance on territorial issues, has made its neighbours increasingly nervous. In Q4 2012, China's J-15 naval fighter plane conducted its first successful take-off and landing on the aircraft carrier Liaoning, while its second stealth fighter, the Shen Fei, conducted its first flight. The Y-20 heavy military transport aircraft also broke cover, further adding to the Chinese military's expanding range of capabilities.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- Rising tensions with Japan and the possibility of conflict are discussed in detail, as are the US' role and Chinese views on the likelihood of US involvement, should a Sino-Japanese conflict become unavoidable.
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  • Fast Market Research, Inc.
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Posted 2013-05-03 10:51:00