Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q2 2013 - New Market Report

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 27 February 2013

BMI View: The agriculture sector in Bangladesh employs close to 70% of the working population but contributes to only 20% of the country's GDP. Inefficiencies in farming methods - a result of the existence of small-scale farms - continue to hold back the sector from enjoying considerable productivity gains.

For 2012/13, we expect modest gains in production of food grains and do not foresee any significant shortfalls in production in terms of meeting demand. Over the longer term, Bangladesh's extreme weather poses a major risk to our outlook for the country's agriculture sector. In fact, as crop cultivation is gradually pushed southward due to climate changes, a key factor for survival will be adapting crop varieties to different cultivation environments.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/541148_bangladesh_agribusiness_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=201) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/541148_bangladesh_agribusiness_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=201)

Key Forecasts

- Wheat consumption growth to 2017: 15.7% to reach 4.7mn tonnes. The main drivers of this growth will be increased per capita consumption and population growth, with the population of Bangladesh forecast to grow by 6.3% from 152.4mn in 2012 to 162.0mn in 2017.
- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: -45.6% to 68,000 tonnes. With farmers increasingly planting more profitable cash crops such as cotton, we do not foresee the trend of declining sugar production to reverse any time soon.
- Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 17.2% to 232,000 tonnes. Better economic conditions and higher disposable incomes will help to drive demand for meat. Better disease control is also expected to support the recovery of the sector.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 6.3%, same as in 2012. Predicted to average 6.3% from 2012 to 2017.
- 2013 consumer price inflation: 5.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) average, from 10.6% y-o-y in 2012. Predicted to average 6.4% from 2012 to 2017.
- 2013 central bank policy rate: 7.8% average, from 2.8% in 2012. Predicted to average 7.2% from 2012 to 2017.

Key Developments

Local refineries are benefiting from the strong demand for duty-free sugar imports into the EU since the two-year ban on sugar exports was lifted in October 2012. Private companies have reportedly doubled sugar production, thus boosting the domestic surplus of the sweetener. Coupled with the fact that state-run mills also had sufficient sugar in stock, there is an estimated total surplus of 2.0mn tonnes available for export. After the Ministry of Commerce gave The City Group permission to export 35,000 tonnes of refined sugar to the EU and Middle Eastern markets in November 2012, three other refiners, Bangladesh Sugar and Food Industries Corporation, Deshbandhu Sugar Mills and Abdul Monem Ltd were permitted to export 50,000 tonnes, 49,000 tonnes and 35,000 tonnes respectively.

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