New Market Study Published: Thailand Agribusiness Report Q4 2012

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Thailand Agribusiness Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 18 October 2012

BMI View: Thailand will maintain its status of key Asian agricultural provider in the coming years. However, the government's interference in the market, especially in the rice sector, will hinder the competitiveness of Thai's production compared to its Asian rivals. Although rice farmers will directly gain from the rice guarantee buyback-programme, we are uncertain about the long-term effectiveness of these policies in enhancing Thai food-producing efficiency as well as boosting the country's export competitiveness. In the livestock sector, the lift of the EU's eight-year ban on raw Thai poultry imports should support production and help the sector against Brazil's fierce competition.

Key Forecasts

- Milk production growth to 2015/16: 30.4 % to 1.2mn tonnes. We expect the number of dairy cattle to increase. Growth however, will be dependent on improving efficiency of domestic production as the Thai market opens up to imports from major producers such as New Zealand and Australia.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2015/16: 26.2% to 2.9mn tonnes. Growth will be supported by rising demand for carbonated soft drinks and confectionery sales.
- Corn production growth to 2015/16: 20.7% to 5.8mn tonnes. Yield improvements and the continued expansion of the upper-northern region will boost output.
- BMI Universe Agribusiness Market Value: 20.9mn in 2012; growth to average 2.4% annually to 2015/16.
- Real GDP growth 2012: 4.0% chg y-o-y; to average 3.5% to 2016.
- Consumer price index 2012: 3.3% average; to average 3.0% to 2016.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/451389_thailand_agribusiness_report_q4_2012.aspx) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/451389_thailand_agribusiness_report_q4_2012.aspx)

Key Developments

Our view for Thailand to release part of its mounting rice stocks and to increase exports in 2012/13 Is playing out nicely, as Thailand's Commerce Minister announced in August 2012 that the government was planning to free rice from its stockpile in auctions to the end of 2012 for domestic sales and exports. We highlighted in June that the current accumulation of rice stocks in Thailand had reached unsustainable levels and thus anticipated the government would release some of its inventories as its procurement programme was completed at the end of June. However, Thai rice prices remain uncompetitive comared to other major Asian producers, and exports should remain relatively subdued in 2011/12.

Thai exports should pick up after the European Union lifted an eight-year ban on uncooked imports in April 2012. Thailand raw poultry was banned from many international markets in January 2004, when an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) bird-flu was detected. Since then, Thailand has successfully developed its export market for cooked chicken meat products and is the world's leading exporter. In 2011/12, exports are estimated to rise by 7.1%, and we expect exports to accelerate in the coming years

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