"Cameroon Business Forecast Report Q2 2013" Published

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Cameroon Business Forecast Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 19 March 2013

Real GDP growth in Cameroon will climb above the 4.0% long-run trend for the next few years. This is on the back of investment in several new mega-projects and increased oil production.

Acute and systemic problems in the banking sector are likely to be addressed very slowly and only partially.

The probability that President Paul Biya will run for re-election in 2018 - and hence further delay planning for his own succession - is rising.

Major Forecast Changes

On the back of new data we have revised up our forecasts for import growth over the next three years. We now believe the regional central bank will hold its policy interest rate at 4.00% through 2013 and beyond.

Key Risks To Outlook

Political stability is likely to persist, unless the ageing Paul Biya unexpectedly exits the presidency.

Positive price shocks to oil would help bring into balance the persistent current account and fiscal deficits.

View Full Report Details (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/552226_cameroon_business_forecast_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=201) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/552226_cameroon_business_forecast_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=201)

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

Core Views

Major Forecast Changes

Key Risks To Outlook

Chapter 1: Political Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Political Risk Ratings

Domestic Politics

No Successor for Biya

- While the 2018 presidential election is a long way away, there are indications President Paul Biya intends to run again (besides his own statements, there have been prosecutions that could be interpreted as designed to keep opposition voices in prison through the elections). To the extent this will prevent the authorities for preparing for life after the ageing Biya, such a decision will continue to exacerbate long-term risks for the country.

Long-Term Political Outlook

President's Longevity A Key Vulnerability

- Over the next 10 years, the single greatest uncertainty facing Cameroon is how a transition from the leadership of President Biya, who has ruled since 1982, will be managed. Despite this significant risk - and smaller challenges such as piracy - Cameroon is remains relatively stable, leading to our expectation of broad political continuity.

TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Economic Risk Ratings

Economic Activity

Investment Push Underway

- Cameroon is enjoying a period of above-trend growth that is likely to continue through at least 2015. Thereafter, declining oil production and the wrapping up of major investment projects should lead to a modest drop in growth, and a transition of the economy away from dependence on the shrinking oil sector.

TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Fiscal Policy

Budget Deficits in 2013

- Cameroon's 2013 budget deficit should come in lower than 2012, but not by much. We continue to believe the government will fail to balance its budget for the foreseeable future, though shocks to the price of oil present upside risks.

View Full Table of Contents



(http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=552226&dt=t&afid=201)

Fast Market Research (http://www.fastmr.com?afid=201) is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.  For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.