New Market Study Published: South Africa Business Forecast Report Q2 2013

Fast Market Research recommends "South Africa Business Forecast Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

by Bill Thompson

(WireNews+Co) - Boston, MA - 19 February 2013

Core Views - BMI sees the South African economy continuing its uneven recovery over the medium term, with real GDP expected to grow by just 2.8% in 2013. Although the consumer sector is relatively robust, the supply side is lagging behind and there are widespread concerns that the recovery is not sufficiently broad-based. A key downside risk stems from industrial unrest in the mining sector.

We forecast that South Africa's repo rate will be kept steady at 5.00% over the medium term. That said, there is a risk that rates will be cut. Growth is slowing, and risks are to the downside given the volatile political risk environment. On balance, however, we expect the South African Reserve Bank to 'hold fire' given that inflation is trending upwards, albeit mildly.

View Full Report Details (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/536379_south_africa_business_forecast_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=201) (http://www.fastmr.com/prod/536379_south_africa_business_forecast_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=201)

Political risk is heightened amid industrial unrest in the mining and agricultural sectors. Furthermore, there is an ongoing debate regarding nationalisation of key industries including mining. However, we do not see nationalisation as an imminent threat.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have revised down our forecast for real GDP growth in 2013 to 2.8% from 3.3% previously, owing to a weaker outlook for private consumption and investment following the 'Marikana Massacre'.

Key Risks To Outlook:

A sustained bout of global risk aversion with an attendant sharp outflow of portfolio funds. This would threaten South Africa's precarious balance of payments.

A sudden uptick in domestic political risk, such as an escalation of the industrial unrest blighting various sectors at present.

A sustained period of high oil prices would exacerbate the alreadysizeable current account deficit.

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

Core Views:

Major Forecast Changes:

Key Risks To Outlook:

Chapter 1: Political Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Political Risk Ratings

Domestic Politics

Zuma's Victory Augurs For More Of The Same

- The victory of President Zuma at the African National Congress's internal elections means that he will likely be re-instated as president of South Africa in 2014, and policy continuity will be maintained. However, that is not necessarily a positive development, since it augurs for more of the indecision and policy uncertainty that has characterised his leadership to date.

TABLE: SOUTH AFRICA POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Long-Term Political Outlook

Trials And Tribulations Over The Coming Decade

- Many issues threaten South Africa's political stability over the long term, not least the inequalities still stemming from the apartheid era and the foreign policy challenge of Zimbabwe. Although our core scenario envisages no major change to the political backdrop, we present a number of alternative scenarios.

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Economic Risk Ratings

Economic Activity I

Subdued Outlook For Growth

- We expect the South African economy to post sluggish growth over the medium term, forecasting that real GDP will expand by 2.8% in 2013 and 3.4% in 2014. Although private consumption should hold up fairly well, investment is likely to suffer due to elevated political risk.

TABLE: REAL GDP GROWTH

TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Economic Activity II

On The Ground: Assessing The Post-Marikana Landscape

View Full Table of Contents
(http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=536379&dt=t&afid=201)

Fast Market Research (http://www.fastmr.com?afid=201) is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.  For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.